* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL982008 07/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 29 32 34 37 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 29 32 34 37 35 34 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 10 13 14 14 13 16 19 24 25 21 15 SHEAR DIR 226 238 210 228 236 245 255 239 251 265 268 309 1 SST (C) 26.8 25.5 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 112 104 103 103 104 109 113 116 120 123 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 110 101 100 100 100 104 107 109 111 112 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 72 67 68 61 56 54 46 46 38 37 36 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 36 43 32 46 24 -8 -15 -48 -69 -111 -139 200 MB DIV 45 54 88 64 47 31 15 -10 -2 -9 -3 -8 -16 LAND (KM) 152 323 506 697 888 1274 1636 1990 2296 2312 2286 2123 2033 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.4 25.7 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 18.9 20.5 22.0 23.7 25.3 29.0 32.7 36.2 39.2 42.1 44.6 46.7 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 17 17 18 18 18 16 15 14 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 9 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 15. 14. 13. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 15. 14. 13. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 07/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)