* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL982008 07/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 35 36 36 36 32 29 25 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 32 35 36 36 36 32 29 25 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 30 31 32 32 32 31 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 14 15 16 18 15 23 26 27 24 20 14 SHEAR DIR 235 202 223 235 232 246 252 243 262 282 301 15 36 SST (C) 25.7 24.5 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.5 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 104 101 102 102 104 109 112 115 118 119 116 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 101 97 99 99 100 103 104 105 106 103 97 96 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 68 68 63 63 56 50 46 45 40 40 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 14 12 11 11 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 26 20 25 27 2 -22 -45 -88 -130 -163 -179 200 MB DIV 49 83 64 42 21 42 4 -17 -2 2 -3 -34 -11 LAND (KM) 265 451 640 841 1015 1355 1709 2003 2272 2502 2390 2278 2296 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.2 21.6 22.9 24.2 25.6 26.9 27.8 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 19.9 21.4 22.9 24.7 26.4 30.0 33.5 36.4 39.0 41.2 42.6 43.1 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 18 18 18 18 16 14 13 11 7 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 7. 4. 0. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 7. 4. 0. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 07/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)