* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL882008 07/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 47 54 61 64 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 47 54 61 64 66 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 44 53 61 66 69 72 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 11 7 9 5 1 3 10 16 8 10 9 SHEAR DIR 225 220 238 245 246 269 184 162 175 212 195 202 187 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 118 119 119 121 127 129 131 132 135 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 112 114 116 116 118 124 126 128 128 130 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 24 25 27 26 28 33 31 38 38 39 40 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 64 57 55 60 12 14 -3 7 21 16 20 200 MB DIV -26 -21 -35 -16 -5 5 0 -32 -9 -4 -10 -21 -9 LAND (KM) 1921 2010 1883 1760 1641 1452 1263 1112 1036 890 736 659 508 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.8 38.1 39.5 40.9 43.5 46.2 48.9 51.5 54.0 56.3 58.7 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 4 5 8 18 24 36 43 48 58 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 394 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 22. 29. 35. 39. 41. 44. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 22. 29. 36. 39. 41. 44. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882008 TEST 07/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882008 TEST 07/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY