* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL982008 07/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 35 36 37 36 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 35 36 37 36 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 15 18 19 14 18 18 22 31 25 17 17 17 SHEAR DIR 230 234 236 239 242 275 251 260 268 288 329 30 46 SST (C) 24.4 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.9 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 101 101 102 107 110 112 114 117 117 115 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 97 98 98 98 102 102 102 104 104 100 95 100 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 62 60 54 48 46 39 42 41 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 19 18 26 3 -13 -30 -58 -95 -140 -158 -158 200 MB DIV 82 64 37 17 36 22 10 0 -25 -17 -15 -11 -14 LAND (KM) 467 661 855 1017 1186 1534 1848 2087 2327 2475 2317 2268 2341 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 21.1 22.6 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.6 28.0 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 21.5 23.1 24.7 26.5 28.3 31.8 34.9 37.2 39.5 41.4 42.6 42.8 42.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 17 14 12 12 9 5 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 07/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)