* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL982008 07/31/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 28 28 29 31 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 28 28 29 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 26 28 31 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 20 16 18 16 20 20 22 15 5 6 12 SHEAR DIR 250 242 248 255 262 264 260 271 276 295 22 78 116 SST (C) 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.5 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 103 103 104 109 112 115 119 123 122 119 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 99 99 99 100 103 104 106 109 110 106 101 97 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 3 4 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 63 65 65 63 52 47 43 43 42 39 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 11 11 11 9 8 9 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 23 36 28 -6 -28 -55 -67 -114 -139 -179 -177 200 MB DIV 58 42 34 39 41 9 -22 -5 -20 -10 -16 -7 4 LAND (KM) 652 845 1034 1193 1360 1710 2006 2270 2487 2379 2211 2088 2023 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 21.2 22.5 23.5 24.8 26.2 27.6 28.5 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 23.2 24.9 26.5 28.3 30.0 33.5 36.4 39.0 41.7 44.2 46.1 47.2 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 16 14 14 13 12 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 07/31/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)