* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL982008 07/31/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 27 29 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 27 29 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 24 24 24 25 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 21 23 18 20 20 19 18 24 19 14 5 12 16 SHEAR DIR 241 247 258 261 266 252 252 259 274 318 32 92 131 SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 102 104 107 111 114 117 121 124 123 121 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 98 99 101 103 106 108 111 111 108 104 100 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 60 58 48 48 41 41 36 36 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 41 34 12 -7 -19 -36 -69 -114 -127 -160 -169 200 MB DIV 33 33 36 46 33 1 7 -24 -26 -13 -17 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 858 1056 1208 1372 1540 1844 2110 2382 2384 2263 2148 2081 2071 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.6 22.3 23.2 24.3 25.6 26.8 27.7 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.7 28.4 30.1 31.8 34.8 37.4 40.1 42.8 45.2 46.9 48.1 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 17 16 14 13 13 13 11 8 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 6 10 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 6. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 6. 7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 07/31/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)