* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 43 45 48 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 43 45 48 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 35 38 42 46 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 16 16 17 14 16 12 14 14 10 11 11 SHEAR DIR 258 249 238 247 255 230 230 220 220 192 224 222 267 SST (C) 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 114 116 117 123 127 130 132 133 127 122 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 108 111 112 117 121 123 123 120 111 106 103 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 47 44 45 43 43 47 48 50 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 31 17 0 -13 -30 -48 -81 -100 -118 -127 -131 200 MB DIV -2 -15 -10 13 18 -16 14 1 -2 5 24 13 -6 LAND (KM) 1946 2090 2183 2095 2005 1894 1847 1645 1419 1357 1432 1617 1574 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.7 24.5 26.6 28.7 30.7 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.9 38.3 39.8 41.3 44.4 47.5 50.6 53.7 56.0 57.4 56.8 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 13 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 3 12 15 17 16 20 9 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 21. 24. 27. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 27. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY