* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 41 48 51 53 53 55 57 57 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 41 48 51 53 53 55 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 0 4 8 13 8 12 15 19 11 13 11 SHEAR DIR 38 77 227 173 178 173 154 136 125 136 122 103 108 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 143 143 142 141 140 140 140 140 134 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 66 67 63 65 63 59 54 50 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -34 -29 -19 -19 -3 -2 0 -14 -11 -20 -16 -17 200 MB DIV 17 4 7 32 15 37 23 0 22 19 7 9 8 LAND (KM) 998 979 956 935 918 897 897 913 977 1048 1085 1184 1297 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.4 105.8 106.2 106.6 107.5 108.6 110.0 111.7 113.6 115.6 117.8 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 10 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 13. 20. 25. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 28. 31. 33. 33. 35. 37. 37. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/01/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY