* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 44 51 54 58 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 44 51 54 58 62 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 48 53 60 66 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 14 10 9 12 3 6 11 5 3 7 4 SHEAR DIR 235 244 252 251 229 258 143 178 199 265 254 298 200 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 119 122 124 130 131 135 135 131 124 125 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 115 118 120 125 125 127 124 117 109 111 110 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 46 49 48 46 45 46 48 47 53 49 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 23 9 2 -21 -38 -51 -81 -102 -103 -105 -98 200 MB DIV 0 16 21 19 -5 4 -8 -11 -4 18 7 0 -3 LAND (KM) 2082 1988 1891 1820 1765 1674 1472 1224 1099 1099 1235 1497 1630 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.3 20.1 21.4 22.9 24.6 26.3 28.1 30.0 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.5 42.1 43.8 45.4 48.7 52.0 55.0 57.5 59.4 59.9 58.3 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 10 10 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 4 10 14 18 18 27 30 20 8 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 37. 38. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 19. 26. 29. 33. 37. 38. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/02/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY