* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 08/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 46 53 56 59 63 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 46 53 56 59 63 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 52 56 58 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 13 14 15 15 3 8 16 15 20 19 28 SHEAR DIR 93 94 82 75 68 77 141 213 276 273 301 268 281 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 138 138 137 133 130 133 139 140 145 147 141 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 147 147 146 141 138 143 151 153 157 156 144 138 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 10 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 54 50 45 43 43 52 52 55 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 26 25 27 7 0 -9 -3 2 2 -10 -21 200 MB DIV 10 13 28 18 -6 -3 -15 -2 6 7 0 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 1163 1378 1597 1740 1665 1432 1096 821 665 336 377 200 73 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.7 14.8 16.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 29.8 31.9 34.1 36.2 40.8 45.3 50.2 55.2 60.1 64.7 68.8 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 21 21 22 23 23 24 25 23 22 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 15 15 14 16 24 40 42 67 61 60 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 28. 32. 38. 41. 46. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 21. 28. 31. 34. 38. 42. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY