* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 45 48 52 53 54 56 57 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 45 48 52 53 54 56 57 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 47 50 53 55 59 62 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 11 15 12 9 9 14 14 11 8 14 19 SHEAR DIR 244 240 223 220 232 223 235 207 229 210 242 171 185 SST (C) 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 123 127 129 130 131 136 135 130 122 123 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 122 125 126 125 127 122 114 106 107 107 105 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 45 44 45 51 54 51 52 53 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -2 -7 -22 -34 -48 -65 -86 -121 -123 -120 -125 -111 200 MB DIV 19 18 -5 7 2 3 -9 8 31 -9 9 -24 3 LAND (KM) 1842 1777 1729 1702 1604 1371 1164 1081 1102 1234 1438 1641 1739 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.8 23.4 25.1 26.6 28.2 29.6 30.2 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.7 46.4 48.1 49.8 53.1 55.9 58.2 59.8 60.1 58.7 56.1 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 17 17 17 16 15 12 9 8 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 16 18 22 23 32 26 17 8 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 24. 26. 27. 25. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY