* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 31 38 43 47 50 52 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 31 38 43 47 50 52 54 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 26 SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 8 6 10 14 11 10 10 9 10 11 16 SHEAR DIR 187 139 162 149 138 125 117 125 132 142 172 185 203 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 144 143 142 142 144 145 145 138 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 70 69 69 64 63 61 61 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 4 7 8 24 14 12 -4 -10 -18 -22 -15 200 MB DIV 41 47 35 36 24 32 33 25 20 26 14 32 33 LAND (KM) 899 883 861 850 844 860 909 994 1128 1187 1326 1460 1582 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.1 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.7 109.3 111.3 113.5 115.9 118.5 121.1 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 5 6 6 7 9 11 11 12 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 37. 38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY