* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 08/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 31 34 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 31 34 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 16 15 16 12 15 16 13 18 20 24 31 SHEAR DIR 63 66 61 56 63 94 70 91 107 132 147 167 176 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 24.2 22.1 21.2 20.2 19.5 19.0 18.3 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 138 131 105 83 73 62 59 59 60 60 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 67 67 60 57 53 47 40 37 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 15 23 2 24 7 -1 -5 4 16 43 48 200 MB DIV 9 6 -1 -1 -16 10 -5 15 7 6 7 10 28 LAND (KM) 264 270 178 127 156 161 240 275 379 392 377 272 95 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 26.9 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.8 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.7 111.6 113.7 115.8 117.6 119.1 119.9 120.3 120.0 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 6 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -22. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 6. -2. -9. -15. -18. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY