* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 08/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 49 56 59 63 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 49 56 59 63 66 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 37 43 50 55 59 61 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 13 15 16 10 5 12 12 18 17 23 21 SHEAR DIR 87 85 68 51 52 59 333 264 307 293 306 271 268 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 137 133 132 130 136 139 143 146 144 136 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 146 143 141 138 147 152 155 157 151 139 144 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 49 44 43 40 44 49 52 53 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 30 27 27 18 3 -6 -13 -3 -6 5 -12 -10 200 MB DIV 27 42 33 8 11 -22 1 12 22 19 4 -10 0 LAND (KM) 1359 1583 1747 1676 1638 1275 973 777 436 377 298 126 71 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.1 15.3 16.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 31.8 33.9 36.2 38.5 43.0 47.8 52.8 57.9 62.8 67.5 71.7 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 22 23 23 23 24 25 25 24 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 14 13 12 33 44 55 54 62 49 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 22. 30. 36. 41. 45. 48. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 24. 31. 34. 38. 41. 45. 47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY