* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 08/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 36 44 49 54 55 58 63 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 36 44 49 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 3 12 12 6 10 7 4 8 9 6 16 6 SHEAR DIR 32 338 308 334 341 322 110 14 102 28 63 325 72 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.4 28.2 29.1 29.2 28.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 154 155 157 155 142 140 153 155 140 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 131 133 135 138 137 125 122 134 133 118 99 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 12 10 14 11 13 10 11 10 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 47 48 44 50 46 49 48 53 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 8 8 7 6 2 2 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -59 -78 -64 -45 -58 -41 -28 -6 21 -5 18 0 200 MB DIV -9 11 1 -6 -28 -5 -9 -2 1 -10 4 14 -15 LAND (KM) 105 158 160 130 155 232 230 100 -121 -335 -562 -704 -669 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.5 28.2 29.0 29.9 30.8 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.4 87.8 88.6 89.4 91.5 93.9 96.0 98.4 100.4 102.5 104.0 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 38 40 29 45 47 36 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. -4. -4. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 23. 29. 35. 37. 40. 45. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 34. 35. 38. 43. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY