* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 46 49 51 54 54 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 46 49 51 54 54 56 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 41 44 47 50 51 54 57 59 SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 13 15 12 14 13 16 13 12 9 14 15 SHEAR DIR 244 229 234 242 244 224 218 227 222 220 149 150 141 SST (C) 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 127 129 132 132 135 136 134 125 123 127 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 124 127 129 127 128 125 120 109 107 110 108 107 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 43 44 49 55 49 49 50 48 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -11 -20 -34 -42 -58 -81 -121 -146 -148 -156 -154 -149 200 MB DIV 26 -6 -5 2 2 12 -7 9 12 -4 -6 -23 -6 LAND (KM) 1745 1696 1657 1566 1471 1194 1058 1041 1133 1312 1508 1619 1645 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.8 22.4 24.1 25.7 27.3 28.7 29.3 29.0 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 46.4 48.2 50.1 51.9 55.1 57.6 59.5 60.4 59.5 57.0 54.9 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 19 17 16 13 10 7 9 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 19 24 21 26 35 23 11 6 10 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 25. 27. 27. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 21. 24. 24. 26. 25. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY