* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 45 49 52 54 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 45 49 52 54 56 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 25 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 6 10 10 11 8 11 10 14 14 15 14 SHEAR DIR 116 144 141 144 135 126 140 119 126 137 166 182 189 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 143 143 143 142 141 142 143 143 137 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 69 69 70 66 63 62 64 60 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 2 6 18 17 20 13 4 2 -15 -6 -9 200 MB DIV 48 46 42 29 45 54 46 49 32 38 28 43 26 LAND (KM) 915 903 882 863 849 855 884 947 1063 1116 1219 1348 1474 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.4 107.6 109.2 111.0 113.0 115.3 117.7 120.2 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 33. 35. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY