* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 08/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 29 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 15 17 14 14 19 23 19 26 21 33 33 SHEAR DIR 46 45 47 50 73 71 92 112 126 133 148 156 174 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.1 23.2 20.5 19.9 19.5 19.3 18.9 18.5 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 146 138 125 95 66 60 60 59 59 60 60 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 4 700-500 MB RH 71 67 68 67 63 58 57 53 52 43 43 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 24 4 9 16 11 -14 11 10 24 49 57 200 MB DIV 0 5 0 -2 -1 13 5 5 16 20 4 30 13 LAND (KM) 246 139 34 44 53 123 82 175 200 199 159 31 -141 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.1 25.6 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.3 33.7 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.1 109.9 110.9 111.8 113.7 115.5 116.9 118.0 118.6 118.8 118.7 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 7. 0. -8. -17. -23. -29. -36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 8. 0. -9. -17. -23. -28. -35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 08/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY