* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 08/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 50 57 63 66 70 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 50 57 63 66 70 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 46 52 56 59 67 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 14 16 16 7 4 17 14 23 15 19 19 SHEAR DIR 93 68 43 45 47 11 284 290 295 312 293 288 258 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 131 128 132 136 139 144 147 140 144 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 142 139 136 140 147 150 155 156 144 144 148 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 58 56 51 48 48 44 39 47 48 52 47 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 30 21 8 0 -16 -18 -16 -18 -29 -34 -41 200 MB DIV 42 36 9 9 -3 -15 0 31 5 2 -15 -7 -13 LAND (KM) 1611 1737 1678 1625 1441 1154 912 673 416 276 148 0 50 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.6 17.0 18.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 34.3 36.5 38.8 41.1 45.6 50.4 55.5 60.4 65.2 69.5 73.4 76.7 STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 22 23 23 23 24 25 24 23 21 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 13 14 21 34 45 64 59 44 39 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 25. 32. 38. 42. 46. 50. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 25. 32. 38. 41. 45. 49. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY