* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 08/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 30 37 45 51 52 54 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 30 37 45 51 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 12 6 4 4 11 10 7 12 4 18 15 SHEAR DIR 347 314 335 326 301 353 164 97 148 113 239 71 108 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 154 156 157 153 141 145 153 151 140 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 131 134 137 138 135 123 126 132 129 119 103 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 14 15 10 13 8 12 8 12 8 11 700-500 MB RH 44 41 47 50 49 48 49 51 52 56 60 55 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 9 10 10 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -77 -58 -40 -50 -47 -37 -32 0 5 2 1 2 200 MB DIV 20 9 -7 -29 -6 3 -14 0 -3 -2 -14 -10 3 LAND (KM) 161 173 146 134 166 251 174 34 -161 -356 -554 -697 -619 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.6 88.2 89.1 90.0 92.2 94.4 96.5 98.5 100.4 102.3 104.1 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 41 34 29 55 39 6 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 33. 36. 39. 40. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 25. 31. 32. 34. 37. 38. 37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY