* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 45 50 52 54 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 41 45 50 52 54 55 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 42 45 46 49 51 52 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 15 13 9 9 11 15 15 10 12 17 22 SHEAR DIR 226 232 240 246 247 248 231 232 232 254 53 63 108 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 132 132 133 139 141 136 127 121 126 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 129 129 129 131 129 121 109 105 109 107 108 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 42 45 51 53 49 52 50 49 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -13 -20 -35 -42 -50 -83 -107 -122 -154 -164 -143 -141 200 MB DIV -1 -1 12 9 0 -9 -15 17 2 -9 -32 -13 -32 LAND (KM) 1634 1594 1501 1417 1278 1028 924 935 1053 1201 1342 1334 1258 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.2 20.9 22.5 24.2 25.7 27.2 28.2 28.3 27.4 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 48.4 50.2 52.0 53.8 56.9 59.4 61.3 61.9 60.8 58.3 57.2 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 15 13 9 6 8 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 27 23 25 33 28 27 17 8 9 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY