* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 38 42 45 48 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 38 42 45 48 50 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 8 11 13 13 15 16 15 20 24 28 34 SHEAR DIR 138 100 119 125 118 113 98 119 94 111 103 79 71 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 142 143 143 144 143 142 141 141 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -52.9 -53.7 -53.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 71 68 68 68 68 65 63 63 61 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -5 -1 1 3 17 29 27 29 24 24 28 19 200 MB DIV 33 40 30 27 33 51 38 29 52 41 8 26 39 LAND (KM) 881 896 907 921 939 1025 1138 1268 1473 1686 1856 1998 2125 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.8 105.3 105.9 106.4 107.9 109.7 111.6 114.0 116.4 118.8 120.9 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 12 12 12 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY