* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 08/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 32 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 25 29 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 28 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 14 12 13 17 25 27 29 37 31 38 46 SHEAR DIR 37 46 53 74 87 95 121 139 146 158 161 176 180 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 27.5 26.2 24.7 21.1 19.6 19.6 19.2 18.2 16.8 15.8 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 140 126 111 73 61 60 60 61 61 61 62 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 6 6 1 1 0 1 0 4 1 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 64 63 62 57 56 50 49 47 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 14 13 19 16 -1 -3 13 35 51 42 26 200 MB DIV 2 0 0 1 13 0 19 14 18 30 47 22 31 LAND (KM) 93 -23 -17 -16 69 19 88 126 142 38 -149 -289 -463 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.3 29.0 30.5 32.1 33.7 35.6 37.7 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.8 110.7 111.8 112.8 114.6 116.2 117.5 118.5 118.9 119.0 118.6 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):342/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -7. -15. -22. -29. -37. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 2. -7. -17. -28. -36. -45. -54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 0. -10. -20. -29. -36. -44. -53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 08/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY