* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 08/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 57 62 64 66 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 57 62 64 66 49 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 43 48 50 50 36 34 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 13 14 13 4 12 20 23 26 27 26 28 SHEAR DIR 83 37 36 29 37 330 249 300 290 310 291 290 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 131 127 127 133 136 140 145 146 141 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 138 133 133 141 145 149 153 151 141 142 142 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 58 52 48 47 48 41 39 47 50 50 51 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 21 9 8 -9 -20 -20 -31 -37 -56 -59 -102 200 MB DIV 36 12 6 -1 -2 0 11 31 15 -1 -7 -5 12 LAND (KM) 1743 1692 1665 1494 1346 1092 904 613 514 144 28 14 -12 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 36.2 38.4 40.6 42.8 47.2 52.0 56.8 61.5 65.9 69.7 73.0 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 22 21 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 14 11 30 38 49 63 60 60 66 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 0. -5. -7. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 26. 33. 37. 39. 42. 44. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 32. 37. 39. 41. 44. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY