* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 08/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 42 48 50 54 56 57 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 42 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 10 2 8 8 4 16 10 7 17 11 14 SHEAR DIR 322 342 355 337 306 82 41 111 44 61 39 75 87 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.8 28.5 29.0 28.7 27.9 26.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 156 157 159 149 144 152 146 134 119 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 133 137 138 140 130 125 131 124 113 101 88 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 14 15 11 13 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 42 47 50 49 45 49 46 52 48 54 53 56 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 8 9 8 9 11 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -61 -33 -40 -58 -33 -45 -28 13 -7 24 -13 23 200 MB DIV 10 -5 -27 -20 -8 8 4 -2 1 -7 -6 5 0 LAND (KM) 196 150 138 156 178 236 85 -124 -322 -522 -684 -693 -633 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.8 29.6 30.4 31.1 31.7 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.4 88.2 88.9 89.9 90.9 93.4 95.5 97.8 99.8 101.7 103.2 104.8 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 36 30 35 44 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 18. 23. 28. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 22. 28. 30. 34. 36. 37. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY