* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 42 46 53 55 56 58 59 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 42 46 53 55 56 58 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 42 46 48 50 52 53 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 11 10 10 9 14 11 14 15 11 17 21 SHEAR DIR 228 243 255 242 235 230 227 233 272 1 62 83 135 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 133 133 135 141 147 145 140 130 120 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 130 129 130 134 136 130 121 111 104 101 99 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 42 44 49 48 50 48 50 48 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -20 -28 -36 -47 -47 -96 -94 -139 -167 -187 -141 -145 200 MB DIV 6 21 26 10 9 0 9 9 -14 -7 -12 4 1 LAND (KM) 1541 1471 1358 1266 1106 877 753 791 902 1044 1153 1216 1234 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.2 20.9 22.4 23.7 25.2 26.5 27.8 28.4 28.4 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 50.2 52.1 53.8 55.5 58.5 61.3 63.4 64.5 64.5 62.6 60.9 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 17 17 15 13 10 7 6 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 31 28 26 32 34 43 34 23 13 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 24. 25. 26. 28. 30. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 16. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY