* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 08/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 30 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 13 11 14 21 22 24 31 35 40 42 50 SHEAR DIR 38 39 70 84 74 117 128 155 160 172 172 184 188 SST (C) 28.3 27.2 25.9 24.2 22.0 19.8 19.6 19.3 17.9 16.3 15.4 14.7 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 137 123 106 83 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 63 61 61 54 53 49 48 44 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 18 12 14 16 1 -18 9 27 57 67 51 63 200 MB DIV -3 -6 0 21 22 14 7 34 12 36 34 38 62 LAND (KM) -33 -19 -10 62 25 114 113 138 26 -136 -244 -387 -489 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.1 26.0 26.8 28.6 30.2 32.0 33.9 35.9 38.0 40.2 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.1 114.1 115.9 117.2 118.4 119.1 119.4 119.4 119.0 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -7. -16. -25. -33. -43. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. -2. -10. -19. -28. -38. -47. -54. -64. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. -3. -12. -22. -31. -39. -46. -54. -63. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 08/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY