* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 08/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 36 42 46 48 50 51 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 36 42 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 3 6 5 9 13 10 23 17 23 15 11 SHEAR DIR 353 8 335 319 47 122 64 29 50 36 61 87 105 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.1 26.4 25.3 23.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 157 159 166 157 145 138 117 106 93 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 132 137 140 146 137 126 117 99 90 79 75 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 14 15 11 11 14 8 13 7 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 41 45 44 41 44 44 46 48 47 50 54 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -20 -30 -58 -57 -56 -53 -22 -14 -3 -3 -14 -5 200 MB DIV -19 -26 -23 -1 -4 -14 4 -19 8 -7 -11 8 -3 LAND (KM) 212 185 150 123 123 133 -18 -221 -416 -592 -723 -851 -874 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.5 29.2 30.2 31.0 31.9 32.4 33.1 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.7 88.4 89.5 90.6 92.9 95.3 97.5 99.5 101.1 102.5 103.6 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 42 31 36 14 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 11. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. 23. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY