* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 37 43 48 54 57 58 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 37 43 48 54 57 58 60 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 49 52 54 54 55 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 12 11 7 10 11 13 16 13 14 22 7 SHEAR DIR 235 246 251 248 254 208 222 227 290 26 89 126 168 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.4 26.4 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 135 138 144 149 147 141 128 117 115 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 130 131 132 136 138 131 122 111 102 99 98 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 12 12 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 42 48 50 50 50 49 51 47 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -27 -33 -41 -33 -58 -91 -95 -129 -158 -173 -168 -162 200 MB DIV 16 7 7 16 -8 3 15 -9 -16 -22 -5 -19 28 LAND (KM) 1457 1351 1269 1111 965 770 701 773 912 1087 1216 1329 1438 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.2 22.6 23.9 25.3 26.8 28.2 29.0 29.4 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.9 53.7 55.4 57.0 59.9 62.5 64.4 65.4 64.6 62.6 60.6 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 17 16 14 12 10 7 8 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 27 32 38 41 44 34 25 10 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 31. 31. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 18. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY