* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 44 50 54 59 62 64 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 44 50 54 59 62 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 32 34 36 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 11 9 10 11 13 11 4 7 7 11 9 SHEAR DIR 99 123 114 120 129 124 124 144 99 102 134 113 133 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 145 147 146 144 145 147 149 146 141 138 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 76 79 74 74 71 70 70 69 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 0 0 8 16 14 14 8 0 -2 0 10 200 MB DIV 50 33 53 61 39 44 44 54 35 29 8 22 -1 LAND (KM) 649 661 674 703 734 801 918 1063 1241 1377 1562 1721 1878 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.7 102.5 103.5 104.5 106.8 109.3 111.9 114.8 117.7 120.6 123.4 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 9 10 11 12 12 14 14 14 14 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 929 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 22. 30. 34. 38. 40. 42. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 24. 30. 34. 39. 42. 44. 47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY