* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 08/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 42 47 52 57 59 60 60 57 55 51 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 42 47 52 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 44 51 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 4 9 8 10 4 12 19 15 27 19 17 24 SHEAR DIR 2 21 328 359 48 33 78 32 52 44 84 64 121 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 28.9 28.4 27.4 25.5 23.5 22.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 158 160 164 166 150 142 128 108 93 85 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 134 137 140 143 145 130 122 110 92 80 74 70 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 11 10 14 11 12 9 9 8 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 49 45 44 47 49 44 49 49 49 46 53 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 7 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -44 -64 -65 -53 -87 -37 -10 -11 5 -5 2 -23 200 MB DIV -37 -22 -5 -12 -5 -15 4 -29 2 9 -7 24 33 LAND (KM) 154 104 107 88 129 78 -125 -312 -513 -688 -852 -863 -843 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.6 31.4 32.3 33.2 33.9 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.9 89.7 90.8 91.9 94.1 96.3 98.4 100.5 102.1 103.5 104.4 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 35 26 20 7 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 12. 17. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 27. 25. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 08/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY