* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 44 47 50 53 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 44 47 50 53 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 25 27 30 32 35 38 41 43 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 15 12 7 16 13 17 11 13 18 17 25 SHEAR DIR 228 225 240 259 232 231 228 262 348 57 87 92 121 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.6 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 135 139 143 148 147 141 130 120 117 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 131 134 136 138 132 123 112 103 99 97 96 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 36 39 41 45 48 45 51 46 48 47 48 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 2 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -27 -31 -32 -38 -86 -85 -116 -122 -173 -164 -150 -149 200 MB DIV 6 6 20 -6 -6 12 -5 -13 -15 -25 1 -13 19 LAND (KM) 1320 1226 1058 928 822 720 767 894 1048 1160 1218 1281 1394 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.6 25.1 26.5 27.9 28.6 28.7 29.0 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 54.2 55.9 57.5 59.0 61.7 63.8 65.0 64.8 63.1 61.6 60.8 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 16 15 13 10 7 7 7 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 37 40 37 45 35 26 13 3 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 31. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY