* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 43 48 52 56 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 43 48 52 56 59 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 27 26 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 7 8 8 9 12 11 13 16 23 19 21 SHEAR DIR 74 101 104 134 126 137 140 137 109 108 100 101 89 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 144 146 146 145 146 146 147 149 148 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 76 78 80 76 75 71 71 70 73 66 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 8 9 21 21 20 18 11 1 -11 -15 -18 200 MB DIV 35 58 63 53 50 51 42 44 31 23 18 15 11 LAND (KM) 678 703 727 768 805 897 1036 1234 1432 1604 1797 1941 2083 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.9 102.8 104.0 105.1 107.5 110.2 113.1 116.1 119.0 121.8 124.1 126.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 9 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 14 13 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 27. 33. 36. 38. 40. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY