* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 65 69 71 71 70 67 64 60 58 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 65 69 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 53 59 64 69 76 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 7 11 10 8 1 12 7 19 10 24 7 9 13 SHEAR DIR 335 336 3 39 225 44 43 45 45 66 112 87 281 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 158 162 166 162 147 148 144 136 126 117 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 135 137 142 146 142 128 127 122 113 102 96 90 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 13 14 9 13 8 11 8 11 9 13 700-500 MB RH 48 44 48 48 47 46 49 48 50 52 54 51 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 9 9 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -57 -54 -52 -53 -73 -30 -31 -13 -5 11 16 2 200 MB DIV -25 -4 -18 -17 -16 6 -22 -2 -34 -16 -9 8 50 LAND (KM) 154 112 111 93 122 48 -139 -322 -475 -630 -688 -699 -757 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.5 31.0 31.3 31.7 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 89.1 90.0 91.1 92.2 94.6 97.0 99.2 101.0 102.6 103.1 102.9 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 35 26 14 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 26. 28. 27. 27. 23. 20. 17. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 26. 25. 22. 19. 15. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY