* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 35 40 46 52 57 62 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 35 40 46 52 57 62 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 26 28 31 34 38 43 49 54 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 12 7 13 11 15 13 3 3 18 10 5 SHEAR DIR 223 236 255 231 208 213 233 255 186 137 124 172 263 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.2 26.1 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 139 142 146 149 150 147 139 126 115 115 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 134 135 138 138 134 128 119 110 101 102 104 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -55.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 40 39 44 48 46 47 43 43 46 47 55 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -29 -31 -32 -51 -79 -87 -126 -148 -153 -123 -116 -124 200 MB DIV 12 13 -9 0 1 6 -24 1 -30 26 30 55 23 LAND (KM) 1204 1044 895 783 699 656 750 835 969 1125 1280 1465 1360 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.8 25.2 26.4 27.7 28.7 29.6 30.7 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 56.0 57.6 59.1 60.6 63.2 65.1 66.2 66.1 64.8 62.6 60.5 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 13 9 7 6 9 10 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 47 44 48 42 42 36 19 8 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 33. 37. 41. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 15. 21. 27. 32. 37. 41. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY