* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 59 63 63 64 66 65 64 61 58 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 59 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 60 64 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 9 4 12 11 14 13 16 14 9 7 3 SHEAR DIR 353 9 14 27 3 66 29 70 30 104 67 133 345 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 166 166 150 147 142 135 120 111 105 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 141 145 145 131 128 122 114 99 91 86 82 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 13 14 10 12 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 47 48 49 48 51 56 57 59 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -53 -43 -56 -85 -51 -15 -24 11 -2 10 -4 37 200 MB DIV -6 -11 -16 -18 -10 8 -25 0 10 0 27 0 16 LAND (KM) 114 101 118 118 93 -98 -286 -475 -645 -719 -706 -757 -755 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.6 91.6 92.7 93.8 96.0 98.5 100.8 102.7 104.4 104.8 104.4 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 8 5 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 28 27 14 9 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 20. 22. 22. 20. 19. 16. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 18. 19. 21. 20. 19. 16. 13. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY