* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 43 45 47 51 53 56 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 40 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 2 11 11 2 16 4 16 7 13 5 2 SHEAR DIR 3 10 354 348 33 4 47 34 79 119 98 159 36 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 158 158 157 145 141 135 123 114 109 103 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 138 138 137 125 121 116 105 95 89 85 82 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -54.2 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 13 14 10 9 12 7 12 8 12 9 13 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 48 47 50 51 55 58 62 61 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -38 -48 -79 -78 -36 -39 6 -3 8 11 -1 10 200 MB DIV -4 -16 -26 -8 19 -29 17 -13 -4 9 -12 19 -1 LAND (KM) 112 103 123 103 42 -154 -338 -527 -715 -691 -690 -755 -749 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.4 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.3 91.4 92.4 93.5 94.5 96.8 98.8 101.1 103.2 105.0 105.2 104.6 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 16 9 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY