* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 46 48 50 51 51 51 51 51 47 46 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 46 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 1 13 11 2 13 6 21 10 17 4 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 358 301 341 46 66 354 53 4 60 17 306 314 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.8 26.7 25.3 24.1 22.8 22.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 159 160 158 152 142 133 119 104 95 88 84 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 139 140 137 131 122 114 100 87 81 75 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 10 9 12 9 10 9 9 10 10 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 47 50 49 54 60 66 61 59 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 10 11 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -50 -86 -75 -48 -23 -31 -4 -4 -13 -8 -13 N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -9 -22 7 0 -13 -19 20 -4 20 -17 -28 N/A LAND (KM) 91 111 95 52 -38 -214 -405 -577 -667 -717 -799 -834 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 30.2 31.1 31.8 32.5 33.2 34.0 34.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.0 92.1 93.2 94.3 95.3 97.4 99.2 101.0 101.5 101.4 101.7 101.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 9 9 6 4 4 4 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 11 8 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 9. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 7. 6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY