* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 51 56 62 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 51 56 62 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 39 45 52 57 SHEAR (KTS) 17 23 23 18 13 13 8 3 7 7 14 3 10 SHEAR DIR 223 216 232 242 252 257 336 35 45 66 58 92 311 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 153 154 155 157 158 155 150 141 126 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 140 140 142 141 138 138 135 132 130 124 112 106 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 11 10 7 700-500 MB RH 46 45 40 43 44 41 43 41 47 47 58 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -41 -68 -85 -77 -130 -144 -157 -119 -110 -98 -88 -26 200 MB DIV 12 -1 5 11 -8 5 -17 -10 3 6 40 30 87 LAND (KM) 564 509 480 501 549 547 630 722 833 938 915 947 854 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.0 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.3 27.3 28.5 30.2 32.5 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.8 64.0 65.2 66.4 68.3 69.9 70.7 70.9 69.9 68.3 66.3 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 19 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 6 9 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 56 36 38 39 56 56 53 51 47 27 16 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 906 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 26. 31. 38. 43. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 22. 26. 31. 37. 43. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY