* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 57 58 58 58 59 57 54 49 47 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 1 9 6 2 3 12 11 12 12 10 15 26 N/A SHEAR DIR 350 326 25 16 280 20 313 37 332 338 285 331 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.0 26.5 24.7 23.4 22.3 21.5 20.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 158 155 149 137 119 101 91 85 82 79 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 139 138 134 129 118 102 86 78 74 71 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -53.5 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 12 13 8 11 9 12 9 11 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 47 48 49 50 52 58 65 60 55 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 11 9 7 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -71 -66 -48 -49 -47 -18 10 -7 -15 -16 -21 N/A 200 MB DIV 3 0 1 9 -19 -1 1 7 20 -9 -8 -22 N/A LAND (KM) 109 119 103 10 -96 -311 -535 -729 -818 -868 -949 -999 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.9 31.9 32.8 33.5 34.3 35.0 35.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.8 93.9 94.8 95.7 98.0 100.2 102.1 102.6 102.4 102.8 102.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 6 4 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 12 9 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 15. 13. 11. 5. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 12. 9. 4. 2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY