* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 08/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 49 54 59 65 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 49 54 59 65 70 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 37 42 48 55 62 SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 16 15 14 12 8 9 12 12 13 9 8 SHEAR DIR 215 233 242 244 240 273 358 7 74 11 54 47 45 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 154 155 156 156 155 152 151 148 143 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 141 141 140 137 133 131 128 127 124 123 116 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.9 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 13 12 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 700-500 MB RH 43 39 42 43 43 45 45 45 47 48 52 57 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -61 -77 -74 -91 -135 -160 -166 -125 -110 -83 -46 -14 200 MB DIV -1 6 11 -9 -33 -3 -32 19 -22 32 8 58 66 LAND (KM) 492 468 483 542 542 585 674 737 821 853 936 1005 914 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.9 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.3 28.0 29.1 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.1 65.3 66.4 67.4 69.0 69.9 70.2 69.6 68.7 68.3 68.2 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 10 7 4 4 4 4 5 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 42 55 65 40 49 43 29 27 22 21 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 25. 29. 35. 40. 46. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 29. 34. 40. 45. 48. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 08/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 08/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY