* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 60 60 58 56 55 52 47 41 38 V (KT) LAND 50 53 46 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 48 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 6 5 5 15 7 16 7 16 10 30 19 N/A SHEAR DIR 330 41 82 283 329 44 6 357 340 326 338 354 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.0 26.7 25.2 23.2 22.3 21.5 20.9 20.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 153 144 137 121 106 91 85 82 79 78 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 133 125 118 103 91 79 74 72 70 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 12 13 8 10 9 10 10 10 6 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 49 49 44 48 56 63 58 54 49 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -80 -52 -47 -39 -26 -3 -9 -8 -16 -25 -19 N/A 200 MB DIV 6 7 3 -9 -16 -10 12 1 -5 -13 -31 -36 N/A LAND (KM) 79 43 -24 -142 -256 -467 -650 -833 -895 -926 -989 -999 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.8 32.6 33.6 34.3 35.1 35.9 36.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.9 94.9 96.0 97.1 99.3 101.1 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.2 101.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 4 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. -2. -8. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY