* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 64 64 62 60 57 53 48 42 37 36 V (KT) LAND 55 42 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 43 36 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 5 15 19 12 12 9 13 19 30 31 N/A SHEAR DIR 52 92 265 339 24 350 45 327 349 327 352 345 N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.3 25.8 23.9 22.3 21.5 21.1 20.5 20.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 150 141 135 128 112 96 86 82 80 78 77 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 130 121 116 110 96 84 75 72 71 69 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -54.1 -54.8 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 12 13 9 7 10 8 10 7 9 4 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 44 47 51 61 65 62 55 58 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 8 8 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -43 -32 -25 -33 13 16 -10 -33 -24 -24 -8 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 4 -14 -14 -2 -1 0 8 -13 -22 -37 17 N/A LAND (KM) 12 -77 -189 -284 -378 -593 -775 -906 -942 -996 -999 -999 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.1 30.5 31.0 31.4 32.3 33.2 34.1 34.8 35.5 36.3 37.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.2 95.3 96.4 97.4 98.4 100.6 102.3 104.0 103.9 102.9 102.7 101.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 5 4 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. -5. -11. -15. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY