* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 47 56 64 68 71 72 71 67 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 47 56 64 68 71 72 71 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 30 32 32 32 31 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 10 12 9 9 9 12 12 12 8 3 6 SHEAR DIR 115 98 118 112 94 90 105 89 89 89 77 103 327 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.7 25.8 24.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 147 149 152 148 141 132 122 110 101 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -52.4 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 80 77 79 78 78 73 71 71 67 64 62 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 9 10 13 14 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 10 13 9 11 15 28 33 43 39 37 30 200 MB DIV 76 63 62 82 74 88 65 78 45 40 51 39 8 LAND (KM) 884 937 1001 1066 1144 1289 1353 1470 1552 1654 1763 1851 1990 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.5 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.7 109.1 110.6 112.0 114.7 117.3 119.8 122.2 124.5 126.8 129.1 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 25. 35. 44. 49. 51. 51. 50. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 27. 36. 44. 48. 51. 52. 51. 47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY