* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * EDOUARD AL052008 08/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 47 46 44 43 40 39 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 20 22 10 18 6 17 18 31 30 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 326 348 26 17 21 338 346 338 333 328 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.0 25.0 23.1 22.2 21.5 20.8 20.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 143 138 132 124 105 90 85 82 79 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 123 119 114 107 90 78 74 72 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 9 8 11 9 10 9 9 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 44 48 49 53 59 61 56 53 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 8 9 8 5 3 4 1 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -37 -33 -35 -27 19 -3 -19 -20 -21 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 0 -5 -17 -9 0 1 -2 -29 -14 -27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -50 -135 -232 -329 -432 -645 -835 -889 -909 -984 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.4 35.3 36.2 36.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.8 96.7 97.9 99.0 100.9 102.6 102.6 101.7 101.7 101.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 6 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -10. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -10. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052008 EDOUARD 08/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY