* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP922008 08/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 34 41 47 52 54 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 34 41 47 52 54 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 36 39 43 45 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 4 4 7 6 7 8 3 4 7 7 13 SHEAR DIR 27 45 127 45 51 60 101 116 156 131 105 162 202 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 137 133 130 132 136 136 134 132 132 134 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 60 58 58 51 54 52 50 51 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 17 20 24 31 36 36 30 25 6 -15 -28 200 MB DIV 19 35 21 30 21 3 -6 -6 -13 -23 -23 -15 -30 LAND (KM) 1757 1654 1553 1448 1347 1174 1031 936 912 991 1144 1319 1518 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.1 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 143.0 144.1 145.3 146.5 148.7 151.1 153.6 156.1 158.7 161.3 163.9 166.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 28. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 32. 34. 37. 40. 44. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP922008 INVEST 08/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922008 INVEST 08/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY