* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 59 62 61 60 56 51 46 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 59 62 61 60 56 51 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 43 44 43 39 34 29 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 6 6 5 12 14 15 11 15 14 22 20 SHEAR DIR 83 94 103 82 358 359 4 350 350 293 275 283 260 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.5 26.6 25.6 24.6 23.4 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 144 145 146 140 130 120 110 97 88 84 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 76 75 75 71 66 60 54 52 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 17 18 18 21 40 50 48 43 31 20 -6 200 MB DIV 80 67 68 71 75 43 40 21 27 15 10 6 -3 LAND (KM) 819 849 873 915 975 1002 1061 1131 1208 1318 1391 1505 1624 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.6 109.8 111.0 112.2 114.6 117.0 119.3 121.5 123.8 125.9 128.0 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 32. 36. 37. 34. 30. 25. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 34. 37. 36. 35. 31. 26. 21. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED