* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP922008 08/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 47 49 52 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 47 49 52 55 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 35 36 37 37 38 38 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 8 11 11 14 15 13 11 12 11 16 19 SHEAR DIR 76 46 59 71 86 88 105 109 104 117 160 221 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 133 131 133 138 139 137 135 135 136 136 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 56 59 59 57 55 50 46 44 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 4 11 16 23 24 23 14 6 -1 -12 -22 200 MB DIV 29 21 15 19 -3 -4 -17 -18 -21 -18 -35 -48 -13 LAND (KM) 1631 1522 1417 1325 1238 1100 1014 1001 1078 1222 1384 1563 1696 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.8 146.0 147.2 148.4 150.9 153.5 156.1 158.8 161.5 164.1 166.6 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 19. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 21. 22. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY