* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL882008 08/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 38 41 41 44 46 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 38 41 41 44 46 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 29 24 24 27 24 19 24 20 28 19 28 20 18 SHEAR DIR 244 248 240 248 270 274 299 283 320 293 295 262 285 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 140 140 144 146 148 147 143 148 152 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 137 137 138 142 144 146 146 141 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 12 13 10 12 10 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 24 21 23 28 31 34 40 41 43 41 40 40 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -3 0 -4 -1 6 24 22 8 -23 -31 -32 200 MB DIV -33 -27 -28 -21 -29 -29 -8 -22 -8 -21 6 -6 20 LAND (KM) 986 844 707 593 489 368 400 350 255 99 11 54 41 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.3 14.9 15.8 17.0 18.1 19.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.6 56.0 57.2 58.4 60.7 63.0 65.3 67.9 70.7 73.6 76.0 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 12 11 11 12 14 15 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 54 64 56 63 74 67 74 79 69 67 90 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 12. 15. 15. 18. 20. 24. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. 19. 21. 26. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882008 TEST 08/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882008 TEST 08/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY