* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 08/06/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 57 58 57 57 55 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 57 58 57 57 55 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 34 35 35 34 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 12 11 9 12 9 11 8 4 4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 64 78 90 96 79 96 72 65 51 60 6 202 222 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.2 26.3 25.4 24.4 23.5 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 148 149 146 137 127 118 108 98 92 90 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 77 77 73 71 63 60 58 54 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 12 11 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 16 22 27 44 50 54 62 55 54 39 35 200 MB DIV 70 70 78 60 50 53 24 26 22 0 -5 -13 9 LAND (KM) 963 980 1016 1070 1069 1081 1168 1220 1357 1480 1636 1821 2012 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.1 15.2 16.1 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.8 111.9 113.0 114.1 116.3 118.6 120.8 123.2 125.7 128.2 130.7 133.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 23. 32. 34. 34. 32. 30. 26. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 33. 32. 32. 30. 26. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 08/06/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY